Be it leading figures of OECD or that of American Union convention that were projected 6 months ahead of current economy all clearly indicated that American economy will still be going downtrend in a short-term run, and American economy is estimated to be healthily steady only after 3 quarters of 2009. The figures also foresaw that economy of Europe and China would be inclined to spiral down. Micro economy projection of 2009 of World Bank showed that upping of world economy slowed to 2.6% in 2008 and would continue to 0.9% in 2009. Further recession would give rise to lesser demand for oil and drop in prices of chemical products in between.
In regards to world consumption of oil, the demand was projected to be 450 thousands barrels less per day in 2009 and growth would be seen only from countries from Mid East, Latin America and China. Projected slashed demand of OECD would surpass the consumption increase from organizations beyond. American would see its consumption of gas slump to 50 thousand barrels per day, fuel oil 70 thousand barrels less per day and it was estimated that supply from non-OPEC sources would add to 410 thousand barrels per day, mainly from Azerbaijan, Brazil and America. Of newly addition of supply from America would contribute 320 thousand barrels mostly from Gulf of Mexico Thunder Horse Platform and Tahiti Platform.
Drop in demand and expansion of production would lead to average production surplus up to 4 million barrels a day and, in addition, non-crude oil products production would up 770 thousand barrels more per day. OECD commercial oil stock increased by 568 thousand barrels in third quarter of 2008 and total 2.65 billion barrels by the end of last year, equivalent to 57 days future consumption demand. Stock level was higher than same period last year and it was estimated to be on a similar level in 2009.
Regarding the above Hypothesis of judgment of supply and demand and production, the crude oil price in the first quarter of 2009 would fluctuate between 40 and 45 dollars a barrel and average 50 dollars a barrel through 2009. |
